Disagreement Halts US-Ukraine Mineral Pact

Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Rare Earth Minerals Deal

On Friday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine held a meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington, aiming to sign a deal allowing the US to access Ukraine’s rare earth mineral resources. Nonetheless, the discussions took a surprising shift, resulting in a tense argument with Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. After Zelensky left prematurely, the White House confirmed that no deal was finalized.

Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.

What Conditions Are in the Agreement?

On Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. This agreement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” to aid Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.

Shmyhal noted that the fund would be jointly managed by both countries on an “equal footing.” As per the agreement, Ukraine would contribute 50% of its future income from state-controlled mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. These funds would then be put toward projects focused on improving Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic development.

The US, meanwhile, promised ongoing financial support to help build a stable and thriving Ukraine, in accordance with US law. The terms of the agreement also indicated that the US would hold the largest allowable portion of the fund under American regulations.

Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms

The specific terms of the minerals agreement seem to have intensified the friction between Trump and Zelensky. Initially, the US demanded a $500 billion stake in Ukraine’s mineral resources, which Zelensky turned down. It has been reported that this demand was subsequently rescinded.

According to Tymofiy Mylovanov, a former Ukrainian minister and head of the Kyiv School of Economics, Washington initially proposed an arrangement that undermined Ukraine’s sovereignty and would have led to economic collapse. However, he noted that the US has since revised its approach, now offering a more balanced deal based on co-ownership, without direct claims on past aid. This, he argued, could ultimately benefit Ukraine.

Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, claiming on Tuesday that the US has given Ukraine roughly $300 billion to $350 billion in aid and that a minerals agreement could help recoup this expenditure. Conversely, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US support totals $119 billion.

Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?

A central sticking point for Zelensky has been the inclusion of explicit security guarantees from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that no such guarantees had been secured.

“Including a provision on security guarantees for Ukraine was essential,” Zelensky commented.

When asked whether he would abandon the agreement if security assurances were not provided, he responded: “I want to secure a NATO path or something similar. Without security guarantees, there will be no ceasefire, and nothing will function.”

Although there are no explicit security commitments, the agreement contains language expressing US support for Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees to secure enduring peace.

Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”

The concept of a minerals agreement was originally introduced by Zelensky as a means to provide the US with a tangible incentive to continue supporting Ukraine. Trump has suggested that, in exchange for mineral access, Ukraine would secure the “right to continue fighting” and that the US would keep supplying military equipment and ammunition “until a deal with Russia is reached.”

The US president has additionally asserted that Russia is willing to permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this option.

When Will the Agreement Be Signed?

Trump initially stated that the deal would be signed at Friday’s White House meeting. While Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal confirmed that a final version of the agreement had been prepared, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, clarified that only a framework agreement was set to be signed.

However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was “gambling with World War Three.”

“You have to finalize a deal, or we’re withdrawing,” Trump allegedly warned Zelensky. “You lack the leverage.”

Zelensky, in response, insisted that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Shortly afterward—well ahead of schedule—Zelensky left the White House. The White House then announced that the deal had not been finalized, with Trump himself canceling the signing ceremony.

Trump later took to Truth Social, alleging that Zelensky had “disrespected the US in its esteemed Oval Office” and remarked: “He can return when he is prepared for peace.”

Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.

Ukraine’s Abundance of Minerals

Kyiv estimates that Ukraine’s reserves account for about 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This comprises around 19 million metric tons of verified graphite reserves, positioning Ukraine as one of the top five global providers of this essential mineral for electric vehicle battery manufacturing.

Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.

Further complicating the situation, some of the mineral-abundant regions in Ukraine are currently under Russian control. Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko states that mineral deposits valued at approximately $350 billion are situated in areas occupied by Russia.

A further challenge to mineral extraction is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that approximately 25% of Ukraine’s terrain is affected, especially in the conflict-ravaged eastern areas.

Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.

“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”

What Has Been Russia’s Response?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet addressed the reported particulars of the US-Ukraine agreement. Nonetheless, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is willing to “provide” mineral resources to American companies for cooperative ventures, including extraction in Russia’s “new territories”—alluding to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.

Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”

“Regarding the new territories, we are prepared to welcome foreign collaborators for the development of these areas, which have rejoined the Russian Federation,” he added.

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”